Q2 FY27 (Sep 9): adj EPS $2.19 vs ~$1.74, SSS +2.2%; raised FY adj EPS to $10.45-$12.15 and adj OI to $535-$605M; $125M ASR plus buyback auth to $700M. Cash closed $102.48 (+24% from $82.67) near $103 high after holding the $95 gap open; AH only -0.3%. Street PT ~$117 and 52w high $110.20 still above. Expect buyback-supported digestion higher over 3 sessions rather than a full gap fade. Invalidation: break of gap-day low $94.33 / loss of $95 open on heavy volume, or discretionary risk-off from oil/rates that overwhelms the EPS raise.
Company cut FY26 guidance a second time (Sep 16): revenue to ~2.4B USD from ~3.0B midpoint; Adj. EBITDA loss to ~200M USD from ~10M, mainly Houston TMS ramp (1-3 units/day vs ~11 planned) plus BOP delays/penalties. Sep 17 close 7.66 (-15.5% from 9.05) on ~27.7M shares after low 7.01; multiple PTs cut (e.g. Baird Underperform). Near-term: further digestion as estimates reset. Invalidation: sustained reclaim above ~8.50-9.00 with volume on short-cover bounce.
Scholar Rock (SRRK) closed Sep 11 at $55.41 ahead of after-hours FDA approval of ISEMBYLD (apitegromab-mstn), the first muscle-targeted SMA therapy for patients 2+ on SMN2 treatment (SAPPHIRE); company says U.S. launch is underway with shipments within days and hosts a commercialization call Mon Sep 14 8:00 a.m. ET. Mon premarket ~$59.50 (+7.4%) confirms follow-through. Strong Buy consensus PT ~$60.75 leaves modest room, but first-product launch narrative favors holding a 3D premium vs full fade. Invalidation: break back under $55.41 / Friday low $54.91 on weak call commentary or pricing/reimbursement concerns.
Rubrik (RBRK) closed Sep 14 at $100.20 (+15.6%, vol 5.5M) in the cybersecurity rotation as Anthropic/OpenAI CEOs urged an AI development slowdown and investors bid AI-threat defense (CRWD/PANW also double-digit). Strong Buy consensus PT ~$118.70 (~18% gap) and cyber-resilience/AI-ops positioning leave room for a 3D hold-and-grind after Tue premarket ~$97.64 (-2.6%) digests the spike. Invalidation: break under Mon low $89.12 / prior close $86.65, or a sharp unwind of the cyber bid into the Fed decision.
GSK closed Sep 14 at $50.05 (+4.0%, vol 3.0M) after WCLC data: Jideytro (zidesamtinib) posted a 94% ORR in TKI-naive ROS1+ NSCLC (ARROS-1), and licensor Hansoh's Phase 3 ARTEMIS-008 showed Ris-Rez cut death risk 54% vs topotecan in relapsed SCLC (median OS 18.5 vs 10.3 mo; GSK holds ex-China rights). Hold consensus PT ~$58.58 (~17% gap) and low beta leave room for a 3D grind higher as oncology follow-through digests ahead of the Fed decision. Invalidation: fade under Mon low $49.61 / prior close $48.13, or broad risk-off that hits ADRs.
Oracle (Sep 10 AMC) reiterated FY27 CapEx $90-$95B; CFO Maxson said spend flows to AI racks/cooling/networking vendors and named Dell. Sep 11 DELL closed $567.29 (+12% from $506.62) at a record on elevated volume, with AH still +0.3%. Dell already carries a record AI server backlog (~$11.7B cited mid-session / company Q2 also flagged massive AI orders) after raising FY27 revenue outlook to $192B. Expect the Oracle read-through to digest higher over the next 3 sessions into Fed week rather than fully reverse the breakout. Invalidation: break back through the Sep 11 open ~$517 / prior close $506.62 on heavy volume, or AI-capex funding skepticism overwhelming the vendor bid.
Fundamental: CEO Murphy (CNBC/Citi TMT week) lifted two-year revenue plan to ~$12B then ~$18B (~$30B combined vs prior ~$23.5B), with >$15B of next year from data center; walks back the post-Aug-27 sell-the-news on XPU timing. Investor Day Oct 6 is the next formal update. Technical: Sep 9 close $235.01 (+4.3%) on ~20M shares after reclaiming the ~$223 100-day EMA zone; day high $241.88 is first resistance, Bollinger mid ~$224.5 / upper ~$251.6; RSI mid-range (not overbought); ATR~$16 (~7%) frames a +4% 3D target inside a -8%/+12% band. Invalidation: daily close back under Sep 9 low $223.60 / 100DMA with expanding volume.
Momentum read on NVDA, base close 230.86 on 2026-10-01 (f1, f2). Price rose +1.09% on the day with a +0.70% opening gap that held and closed near the session high; the 5-day change is +2.80% (f1). The visible series shows a persistent higher-low sequence off the 09-14 low of 210.96: subsequent lows held at ~218.29 (09-17 close area), 224.58 (09-24), and 227.21 (09-29), with closes 222.27 → 227.38 → 228.87 → 228.86 → 227.21 → 230.86 (t1). Price is grinding back toward the 09-28 high of 233.21 and the 09-04 high of 234.50, so the advance is a recovery within, not beyond, the recent range — mean reversion is not compelling and I see no evidence of exhaustion. Three-day direction is modestly positive. The main caveat is confirmation: volume_ratio_20d is 0.87, i.e. below average, so the rally lacks strong participation, and 230-234 is a congestion zone where supply could appear. Invalidation: a close back below ~224.5 would break the higher-low structure, and a rejected/failed push through 233-234.5 would flatten the edge; either would argue for neutral rather than continuation. Given below-average volume I keep the target modest rather than aggressive. Thesis is directional momentum, small size, horizon 3.
SEC 8-K (2026-09-16): Amazon long-term backup-generator supply; expected initial deliveries 2.4B USD in 2027-28, warrant vesting tied to up to 8B USD payments. Sep 17 gap-and-fade: open 229.50 / high 231.89 / low 202.26 / close 207.23 (+18.3%) on ~8.0M shares. Near-term: digestion after +32 USD re-rate while revenue impact is 2027+; 8B USD is vesting cap not firm backlog. Invalidation: sustained reclaim/hold above ~215 toward gap highs with volume.
Cloudflare (NET) closed Sep 11 at $306.53 after a ~10% Sep 9 repricing on OpenAI Daybreak/Managed Defense vulnerability remediation plus CFO Seifert lifting the long-term growth ambition toward 50% at Goldman Communacopia; Mon premarket ~$311.75 (+1.7%) shows the bid returning after Friday's digest. Buy consensus PT ~$336 (~10% gap) and agentic-traffic narrative still leave room for a 3D grind toward $315-320. Invalidation: fade back under Friday low $302.88 or a sharp growth-stock selloff into the Fed week.
Qorvo (QRVO) closed Sep 11 at $116.65 (+3.8%) after SWKS CEO said the $22B cash+stock merger is in final stages (HSR/FTC clear; China SAMR and Korea KFTC remain); deal value ~$117.32 at SWKS $88.35 (0.960 shares + $32.50 cash), so QRVO sits ~0.6% below parity with AH $117.07 and session high $120.52. Prior week also had an earnings beat/volume surge. 3D bias is a grind toward/through parity on close-odds follow-through rather than a full fade. Invalidation: arb spread widens on China/Korea setback, or break back under $112.36 prior close.
Academy Sports (ASO) closed Sep 11 at $55.36 (+2.1%) after a ~23% week on Q2 adj EPS $2.31 (+19%) and a fiscal-2026 adj EPS raise to $6.50-$6.90 while reaffirming 3-5% sales growth; Friday volume 3.16M (~2x avg) and AH $55.79 kept the bid. At ~9x trailing / ~8x forward with Buy consensus PT ~$59.85 (~8% gap) and 11 new stores in Q3, 3D continuation toward $57 is favored over full fade. Invalidation: break below Sep 11 low $54.54 / prior close $54.22 on volume, or sharp discretionary selloff into Fed week.
Sep 8: raised Q3 Adj. EBITDA to $110-$130M (from $90-$105, +23% mid) and Q4 to $145-$180M (from $100-$120, +48% mid); initiated Q1'27 at $200-$240M on stronger power services and acquisitions (data-center tilt). Week +~23%; Sep 11 closed $67.42 (+5.1%) after tagging $70.33, gap held near $65, AH +1.6%. Strong Buy / ~$95 PT still above cash. Expect guidance digestion higher over 3 sessions into Fed week. Invalidation: break Sep 11 low $65.26 / prior close $64.15 on heavy volume, or growth/valuation selloff if Fed hike rhetoric overwhelms the power-infra bid.
Oracle FY27 CapEx $90-$95B (Sep 10 AMC) rekindled AI server OEM bid; SMCI closed Sep 11 at $40.10 (+7.3% from $37.38) with AH ~flat as peers DELL/HPE ripped. Conference remarks reaffirmed record AI backlog and FY27 growth framing; Street PT ~$42 still above cash. Expect further digestion of the Oracle read-through over 3 sessions into Fed week rather than a full fade of Friday's breakout. Invalidation: break Sep 11 low $37.56 / prior close $37.38 on heavy volume, or AI-server margin/inventory scare that swamps the OEM rotation.
CEO Phil Brace (Goldman Communacopia): $22B Qorvo merger in final stages; HSR/FTC waiting periods expired, financing locked, close targeted this calendar year. SWKS rose ~10% Sep 10 to $84.03 then closed Sep 11 at $88.35 (high $92.30) with QRVO co-moving. Two-day deal de-risking bid should digest higher over 3 sessions despite stale Hold/~$68 Street targets that lag the close premium. Invalidation: break of Sep 11 low $83.95 / Sep 10 close $84.03 on heavy volume, or adverse foreign regulatory news that reopens deal risk.
Q3 FY26 (Sep 2 AMC): record $12.2B revenue (+34% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $1.11, raised FY26 revenue growth to 34-37% and non-GAAP EPS to $3.75-$3.85; FY27 framework 13-17% growth. Orders ran far ahead of revenue with record backlog; networking strength and Juniper integration ahead of schedule. After initial sell-the-news on supply/margin worries, Sep 9 closed $58.90 (+5.1%) on ~30M shares, confirming re-rating toward Street targets ~$65-$69 while still below the $64.25 52-week high. Expect further digestion over 3 sessions. Invalidation: break of Sep 9 low $56.55 on rising volume, or guidance/supply disappointment into Networking Investor Day (Sep 30).
Bloomberg (Sep 9 AH): Blackstone-backed Kinetik exploring strategic options including a sale; advisers preparing a process that could start within weeks. Regular close $54.55 did not include the ~5% AH reprice to ~$57.32. Q2 raised FY26 Adj. EBITDA to $1.04-1.1B supports strategic interest. Expect partial retention of the sale-process premium into the next cash close. Invalidation: company denial, fade back through $54.55 on heavy volume without follow-through, or energy risk-off that swamps the M&A bid.
NOW closed 2026-09-08 at $134.21 (-4.99%) as OpenAI GPT-6 Astra reignited software-disruption fears; peers CRM/INTU also fell ~4% and the S&P software index dropped ~1.4% for a second straight session (Reuters). Session range $132.46-$136.98, close near the low. ATR14 ~5.3%. Near-term pressure can extend through Thursday CPI into growth/software multiples even if the Astra thesis is a risk repricing not proof of displacement. Point -2.5% over 3D; invalidation on a reclaim-hold above the $136.98 session high and relative strength vs software peers.
CRWV closed 2026-09-08 at $99.83 (+11.72%) on AI-infra enthusiasm after OpenAI GPT-6 Astra (WSJ) plus a broader neocloud lift tied to Nebius-Palantir headlines (no CRWV-specific filing). Volume ~51M vs ~28M avg. Tape ran $92.88-$104.59 and closed off the high after a multi-day surge from the low-$80s, so a large share of the sector beta looks priced. ATR14 ~5.2%. Point -2.2% into the next session ahead of Thursday CPI; invalidation if price reclaim-holds above the $104.59 session high.
QCOM closed 2026-09-08 at $174.09 (+3.17%) after an SEC-filed Amazon/AWS collaboration: warrants for up to 25M shares at $161.26 (~$4B) vesting with commercial purchases up to $60B of server chips/related tech, plus custom AI inference silicon and optical interconnect to 1.6T. Volume ~26.1M vs ~14.3M avg. The tape gap-opened near $180–$183.49 then sold off to close near the session low ($172.04), implying much of the headline was digested intraday. ATR14 ~3.3%. Point -1.5% into the next session ahead of Thursday CPI; invalidation if price reclaims and holds above the $183.49 gap high.